Recession Food Trends: Will We Repeat the Past?

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Recession Food Trends: Will We Repeat the Past?

What Happens to Consumer Spending in a Recession?

While no two economic downturns are the same, we have a history of spending data during times of downturn and recession to levy when faced with the next cycle. The Harvard Business Review states that “During recessions, of course, consumers set stricter priorities and reduce their spending.” Generally, as the media forecasts and promotes bad economic news, consumer confidence begins to dwindle. Dwindling consumer confidence creates a slowdown in consumer spending further slowing economies. It’s a vicious cycle. But through it, one thing remains consistent, to continue to live we must eat. This insulates some food manufacturers and retailers during times of economic slowdown. But which ones?

Past downturns have revealed that consumers tend to pull back on spending on food away from home – meaning we cook and eat more meals at home which increases spending on retail food. But there have been changes there as well, historically. Consumers tend to seek out and shop for cheaper products at cheaper outlets driving sales at warehouse clubs and big-box discount stores and increasing sales for private label and lower-cost brands.

What Are Some Recession Food Trends?

Sweets & Candy

As stress levels increase about work and finances and spending on experiences and dining away from home decreases, consumers reach for the candy bowl. Historically, sweet treat sales increase during a recession. During The Great Recession of 2008, Cadbury’s profits jumped 30%. Nestle saw an 11% increase. And when the pandemic kicked off in 2020, chocolate sales soared 20%.

‘Necessity’ Foods Sell

Milk, eggs, bread, cheese. Staples that can be spun into a variety of meals and sides from breakfast to dessert will always sell well but they pack a compelling ‘value’ during recessions.

Frozen Foods

As consumers forgo the convenience of dining out, they reach for the convenience of frozen foods and meals. Added appeal to the frozen foods sector is the low waste and nutrient retention.

Are There ‘Recession-Proof’ Foods?

There probably aren’t any truly ‘recession proof’ categories because consumer habits continually change and evolve. But the categories that seem to withstand the test of time include candy, french fries, beer, and pet food with the frozen ready meal category showing unique resilience during The Great Recession. 

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